Company DCF analysis file
Intel DCF Analysis
An Intel DCF must show how manufacturing capacity becomes profitable output and which investors fund it. Positive FY2025 operating cash coexisted with an operating loss and equipment payments larger than operating cash. Customer demand, factory ramp and partner or government funding need separate schedules.
Revenue, expenses and profit on one annual basis
Historical Intel consolidated comparison, $ millions: FY2024 ended 2024-12-28 and FY2025 ended 2025-12-27. These annual periods are separate from the later interim observation below.
| Measure | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53,101 | 52,853 |
| Cost of sales | 35,756 | 34,478 |
| Gross profit | 17,345 | 18,375 |
| Research and development | 16,546 | 13,774 |
| Marketing, general and administrative | 5,507 | 4,624 |
| Restructuring and other charges | 6,970 | 2,191 |
| Operating loss | -11,678 | -2,214 |
| Income/(loss) before taxes | -11,210 | 1,557 |
| Consolidated net income/(loss) | -19,233 | 26 |
Source: Annual financial statements. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
The operating loss narrows, but revenue does not increase on this annual comparison. Nonoperating gains and tax affect the move from operating loss to consolidated net income. Adding depreciation to profit describes a cash reconciliation; it does not pay new equipment invoices or establish a mature factory margin.
Consolidated profit and Intel-shareholder profit differ
| Reported earnings attribution, $ millions | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated net income/(loss) | -19,233 | 26 |
| Net income/(loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests | -477 | 293 |
| Net income/(loss) attributable to Intel | -18,756 | -267 |
Source: Annual business disclosures and financial notes. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
The same-year consolidation can show positive total net income while the amount attributable to Intel is negative. Partner funding has an associated economic interest; a forecast cannot retain the funding benefit and assign all later cash to Intel shareholders. Internal foundry transactions also require elimination before projecting external demand.
Reconcile reported cash before forecasting investor cash
| Measure | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Operating cash | 9,697 |
| PPE cash additions within investing activities | 14,646 |
| PPE cash payments within financing activities | 3,026 |
| Total displayed equipment payments: derived | 17,672 |
| Operating cash after gross displayed payments: derived | -7,975 |
Source: Annual cash-flow statement and related notes. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
The gross equipment-payment comparison is14,646 +3,026 = $17,672million, then9,697 -17,672 = negative $7,975million. It is not issuer adjusted FCF. Government incentives, partner contributions and finance-lease payments must be reconciled individually rather than netting funding into customer demand or deducting the same equipment payment twice.
The later interim period stays separate
| Observation | Period-specific evidence |
|---|---|
| Reported period basis | Q2 2026 covers 2026-03-29 through 2026-06-27 and was released 2026-07-23. Revenue was $16,128 million in this quarter. |
| Interpretation boundary | Quarterly operating improvement and a GAAP net loss describe different lines of the accounts. Manufacturing payments, partner contributions and government support need separate cash schedules; internal foundry revenue is not additional group sales. |
Source: official reporting for the stated period. The dated quarter is not annualized here and is not added to either full-year column. Later reporting must be checked before refreshing the valuation date.
Turn the statements into a DCF operating case
Build the product and external-foundry case from paid demand, cost, yield and utilization, with those future variables stated as assumptions. Schedule equipment payment, in-service date and depreciation separately. Convert recurring operating profit to cash through operating taxes, noncash charges, operating balances and replacement/growth investment. Reconcile Altera deconsolidation and the retained equity investment, then partner interests, leases, debt and government-linked financing in the equity bridge.
| Driver | Evidence to carry into the forecast | Downside condition to test |
|---|---|---|
| Factory ramp | In-service capacity, output, yield and customer acceptance | Equipment is paid before utilization earns its assumed return |
| External demand | Customer sales after internal-foundry eliminations | Internal transfer revenue is mistaken for another customer receipt |
| Funding and attribution | Partner/government receipts and associated claims | Funding is counted while later economic obligations are omitted |
Stress a slower factory ramp with equipment payments unchanged, then vary funding timing at unchanged output. These isolate operational and financing exposure. Terminal cash must sustain the productive asset base and reflect the interests of the investors entitled to it; the historical operating-cash line alone supplies neither result.
Use the Intel financial analysis for the broader operating context, the company forecast to state the operating assumptions, and the DCF calculator only after defining the investor cash stream. Keep the statement definitions, reporting dates and your own assumptions visible when comparing valuation cases.
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