Company DCF analysis file
ASML DCF Analysis
An ASML DCF depends on system acceptance, installed-base work and the cash left after physical and intangible investment. Customer advances help fund production but leave delivery obligations. Keep the forecast and discounting currency in euros unless a separate currency conversion is explicitly defined.
Revenue, expenses and profit on one annual basis
Historical ASML consolidated comparison, EUR millions: FY2024 ended 2024-12-31 and FY2025 ended 2025-12-31. These annual periods are separate from the later interim observation below.
| Measure | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 28,262.9 | 32,667.3 |
| Cost of system sales: positive expense | 10,406.9 | 11,384.0 |
| Cost of service and field-option sales | 3,364.0 | 4,025.3 |
| Gross profit | 14,492.0 | 17,258.0 |
| Research and development | 4,303.7 | 4,698.8 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 1,165.7 | 1,257.8 |
| Operating income | 9,022.6 | 11,301.4 |
| Net income | 7,571.6 | 9,609.4 |
Source: Annual financial statements. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
System and service costs explain the gross-profit bridge; development and administrative spending then reconcile to operating income. Higher gross profit does not identify when customers accept systems or pay the final installment. Revenue recognition and the production-cash schedule therefore need separate modelling even when the annual margin improves.
Systems and installed-base activity have different timelines
| Reported revenue, EUR millions | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net system sales | 21,768.7 | 24,474.3 |
| Service and field-option sales | 6,494.2 | 8,193.0 |
Source: Annual business disclosures and financial notes. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
Both revenue categories serve the equipment ecosystem, but a new system, an upgrade and a service visit do not have identical acceptance and collection milestones. Backlog is a dated order population, not additional recognized sales or freely available cash. Build conversion by delivery and acceptance cohort.
Reconcile reported cash before forecasting investor cash
| Measure | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash | 11,166.2 | 12,658.5 |
| Property purchases: positive deduction | 2,067.2 | 1,573.6 |
| Intangible purchases: positive deduction | 15.9 | 57.6 |
| Cash after both deductions: derived | 9,083.1 | 11,027.3 |
Source: Annual cash-flow statement and related notes. Annual values are reported unless a row is marked derived.
ASML defines this cash measure after both property and intangible purchases. For 2025 the calculation is 12,658.5 minus 1,573.6 minus 57.6 = EUR11,027.3 million. Leaving out intangible purchases changes the definition. Advance receipts are already part of operating cash and cannot be collected again when the related revenue is recognized.
The later interim period stays separate
| Observation | Period-specific evidence |
|---|---|
| Reported interim basis | Q3 2026 covers 2026-07-01 through 2026-09-30 and was released 2026-10-14. Revenue was EUR 11,662 million in this quarter. |
| Interpretation boundary | Orders, advance collections, completed systems and customer acceptance occur at different times. The later quarterly result is not a conversion rate for the order book, and all annual table values remain in EUR. |
Source: official interim reporting. The dated quarter is not annualized here and is not added to either full-year column. Later reporting must be checked before refreshing the valuation date.
Turn the statements into a DCF operating case
Reconcile operating profit after operating taxes to depreciation, research treatment, investment and operating working capital. Map advances, production payments, installation and acceptance to the same system cohorts. Keep obligations associated with customer funding visible. Select the quoted security and dated share denominator explicitly; a dollar quotation does not convert the underlying euro cash flows by itself.
| Driver | Evidence to carry into the forecast | Downside condition to test |
|---|---|---|
| System acceptance | Shipment, installation and customer acceptance | Final collection moves later while supplier work continues |
| Installed-base service | Paid upgrades and equipment utilization | Lower customer activity reduces service cash |
| Order funding | New advances versus work still owed | New order intake weakens before prior deliveries finish |
Compare an acceptance delay with a separate advance-payment delay. State the contractual assumptions for retention or refund of advances. These cases reveal funding needs before a terminal-value assumption can obscure them; neither bookings nor unit shipments alone supplies the investor cash forecast.
Use the ASML financial analysis for the broader operating context, the company forecast to state the operating assumptions, and the DCF calculator only after defining the investor cash stream. Keep the statement definitions, reporting dates and your own assumptions visible when comparing valuation cases.
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