TSMC: capacity investment, NT$ cash and ADS representation

TSMC's FY2025 revenue was approximately NT$3.809 trillion. Rounded operating cash of NT$2,274,976 million less cash capex of NT$1,272,411 million left a derived NT$1,002,565 million. The result shows the scale of capacity investment while retaining New Taiwan-dollar units; it is not a $ valuation or a per-ADS result.

Latest released reporting at October 25, 2026

Q3 2026 covers 2026-07-01 through 2026-09-30 and was released 2026-10-15. Revenue was NT$1,494.24 billion, as rounded in the issuer release. Source: official Q3 2026 results.

The annual chart uses the issued FY2025 annual report, rather than the lagging FY2024 API series. The later quarter is reported under TIFRS; NT$ figures, convenience-dollar translations and ADR/share counts have separate meanings.

Full-year revenue (reported)

Reported whole-company revenue, before operating expenses and reinvestment; it is not a cash-flow or valuation measure. NT$ is the reporting currency; no convenience-dollar translation or ADR conversion is used. Source: FY2025 annual report and comparative statements.

A foundry sells manufacturing capability to chip customers

TSMC provides semiconductor foundry services: it manufactures chips for customers and supports the associated production process. The cited annual filing describes wafer fabrication and related foundry services, so customer demand must be matched to the manufacturing technology and usable capacity able to serve it.

The reported NT$ 1,272,411 million cash-capex program is the funding side of that customer-production model. Equipment payments can precede the output they are intended to support, while process and customer mix affect how capacity is used. The derived group cash remainder cannot show the return of a particular fabrication plant or customer program.

Dated reporting reference

The FY2025 Form 20-F, signed April 16, 2026, covers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and subsidiaries for the year ended December 31, 2025. The table uses the MD&A’s rounded NT$ million amounts, without converting them into $.

Read profit and capacity funding on different schedules

Using those rounded inputs, operating cash less cash capex is NT$ 1,002,565 million: 2,274,976 − 1,272,411. This is a narrow derived cash subtotal, before other movements; it is not automatically cash available to shareholders or an unlevered DCF series. Rounding can differ from calculations using the precise financial statements.

For a forecast, schedule new facilities and equipment through installation, qualification, usable production and customer demand. Cash can leave before the capacity earns revenue, while depreciation begins under its accounting criteria and continues through periods of lower utilization. A capacity announcement alone does not establish saleable output or an earned return.

Test utilization before treating demand growth as cash growth

Assume fixed production-related cost of 300 currency units in a period. At 75 output units the fixed cost per unit is 4; at 90 units it is about 3.33. This simplified scenario illustrates fixed-cost absorption and excludes variable cost, yield, pricing, technology mix and capital spending. It is not a TSMC utilization forecast or disclosed wafer cost.

Use a demand case with node, product and customer mix assumptions, then ask which capacity can serve it and when. A higher selling price for a newer process may come with a different capital requirement, ramp cost and yield profile. Test slower demand with already committed equipment payments rather than assuming investment scales down instantly with sales.

Keep NT$, $ and share units separate

The Form 20-F identifies New Taiwan dollars as the reporting currency and labels its $ columns as convenience translations. Its securities description states that one ADS represents five common shares, with ADRs serving as the certificates evidencing ADSs. Currency conversion and the five-share representation are separate operations.

For an assumed calculation only, NT$ 300 of value per ordinary share × 5 shares per ADS ÷ 30 NT$ per $ = $50 per ADS before fees or taxes. Neither 300 nor 30 is a current value, price or exchange rate. Do not apply the ratio to total company value and also multiply the per-share result again.

Choose a consistent valuation currency

Forecast and discount cash flows on a consistent currency basis, with inflation, risk and terminal assumptions that belong to that currency. Translate the resulting equity value once under an explicit valuation-date convention, then use the corresponding share denominator. A convenience-translated annual $ column is not an exchange-rate forecast.

The October 15, 2026 quarterly release preserves separate NT$ per-share and $ per-ADR labels. It is later quarterly context, prepared on its stated TIFRS basis, rather than a replacement for a line in the annual table.

What customers pay for and what changes the economics

TSMC manufactures customer-designed chips under a pure-play foundry model rather than marketing its own competing chip products. The FY2025 report describes advanced and specialty processes plus packaging and stacking services such as CoWoS and SoIC. Customers serve high-performance computing, smartphones, IoT, automotive and other markets. A customer program can therefore require both a suitable wafer process and compatible packaging; aggregate factory capacity is not one interchangeable unit. (FY2025 source.)

Analysis: Forecast the bottleneck that limits a complete customer product. More wafer capacity does not fully monetize demand if the corresponding packaging or qualification is late. Conversely, packaging expansion needs compatible wafer output and customer orders. Assess the combined capital plan and useful production timetable rather than valuing each announced capacity addition as an independent revenue stream.

Operating signals to carry into the forecast

Watch these signals on a consistent period and definition. Undisclosed measures remain questions to investigate, rather than supplied KPI data.

• Revenue mix by process generation and platform: separate technology adoption from end-market volume.
• Packaging and wafer-capacity readiness: identify whether both support the same customer program.
• Yield and utilization commentary: distinguish technical qualification from economical output.
• Overseas and domestic investment timing: include ramp costs and productive capacity on the same currency/reporting basis.

SWOT and the forecast consequence

SWOT classifications and forecast consequences are analytical judgments; evidence uses the dated sources cited below.

Valuation implication: Compare synchronized wafer-and-packaging growth with a case where one bottleneck delays complete customer output. Require an adequate return on the combined investment, not only a higher wafer price. Keep NT$, convenience-dollar and ADS/share conversions separate as explained above.

Scope

This historical reference and its original exercises do not supply a current valuation, complete dataset or verified description of the DCF file. The operating, currency and capital assumptions for a valuation remain yours to document.